If you own an HDB flat and have been wondering whether 2026 is the year to sell, the headlines probably look confusing. Prices are down. Million-dollar flats are up. Transactions jumped. So which is it?
The short answer: the HDB resale market has stopped rising as a whole, but it has split into different markets depending on where your flat is and what type it is. I went through every resale transaction registered on data.gov.sg this year to see what is actually happening, and what it means if you are thinking of selling or upgrading.
The headline numbers: prices flat, volumes up
According to HDB’s flash estimate released on 1 October 2026, the Resale Price Index (RPI) slipped 0.2% in Q3 2026 to 202.4. That is the third straight quarterly dip, after -0.1% in Q1 (the first decline in close to seven years) and -0.3% in Q2 (The Straits Times, CNA). Over the first nine months of 2026, prices are down about 0.6%.
Zoom out and the picture is a plateau, not a crash. The index peaked at 203.7 in Q3 2025 (HDB Resale Price Index, data.gov.sg) and has drifted sideways since. The median resale price across all flat types was $628,000 in January to September 2025 and $630,000 over the same period in 2026.
What did change is activity. HDB recorded 7,528 resale transactions in Q3 2026, up 5.2% year-on-year. The jump came after the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners buying a resale flat was removed on 28 July 2026. HDB said it has not seen a significant increase in prices or purchases by private property downgraders since then, but analysts noted more buying interest and enquiries.
By flat type: the bigger the flat, the firmer the price
Here is how the main flat types compare, January to September 2026 against the same nine months of 2025:
| Flat type | Resale deals (Jan–Sep 2025) | Resale deals (Jan–Sep 2026) | Median price 2025 | Median price 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-room | 4,893 | 4,504 | $445,000 | $440,000 | -1.1% |
| 4-room | 8,679 | 8,648 | $630,000 | $629,444 | -0.1% |
| 5-room | 4,607 | 4,613 | $735,000 | $740,000 | +0.7% |
| Executive | 1,211 | 1,272 | $900,000 | $915,000 | +1.7% |
3-room flats softened slightly and saw about 8% fewer transactions. 5-room and Executive flats held up or edged higher, and Executive volume rose about 5%. That suggests buyers who need space are still paying for it, while smaller flats face more competition.
Million-dollar flats hit a new high, even as the index fell
This is the part that surprises people. While the overall index dipped, million-dollar resale deals kept climbing:
- 596 flats sold for $1 million or more in Q3 2026 (registration data), the highest quarterly count since at least 2017 and up from 490 in Q2. The Straits Times reported 597.
- 1,497 million-dollar deals were registered from January to September 2026, compared with 1,243 in the same period of 2025, about 20% more.
- 352 of the 596 Q3 million-dollar deals were 5-room, Executive or Multi-Generation flats.
- The top towns for million-dollar deals this year: Toa Payoh (231), Queenstown (206), Bukit Merah (176), Kallang/Whampoa (115) and Ang Mo Kio (111).
In other words, the average flat isn’t getting more expensive, but well-located, larger flats in mature estates still are. The index is an average of two very different markets.
A two-speed market: where 4-room prices rose and fell
The split is clearest in 4-room flats, the most traded flat type. Comparing January to September 2026 with the same period of 2025, in towns with at least 100 deals this year:
| Town | 4-room median (Jan–Sep 2025) | 4-room median (Jan–Sep 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queenstown | $988,000 | $1,049,444 | +6.2% |
| Ang Mo Kio | $595,888 | $630,000 | +5.7% |
| Toa Payoh | $983,444 | $1,010,000 | +2.7% |
| Kallang/Whampoa | $888,000 | $908,000 | +2.3% |
| Sengkang | $650,000 | $639,444 | -1.6% |
| Woodlands | $560,000 | $548,000 | -2.1% |
| Yishun | $570,000 | $550,000 | -3.5% |
| Sembawang | $630,000 | $600,000 | -4.8% |
Mature, central towns kept rising. Several northern and north-eastern non-mature towns softened. Part of the reason is supply: ERA noted that about 13,480 flats reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, and HDB will launch about 7,960 BTO flats in November in Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun (The Straits Times). More choice for buyers usually means less room for sellers to push price.
What this means for you
If you are planning to sell your HDB flat
- Price matters more than timing. In a flat market, the listings that sell are priced in line with recent transactions in the same block and street, not with last year’s peak or the highest deal in the town.
- Know which market you are in. A 4-room in Queenstown and a 4-room in Sembawang moved in opposite directions this year. A town-wide average can mislead you by tens of thousands of dollars.
- Watch the competition near you. If a large batch of flats in your area has just hit MOP, you are competing with newer stock. Presentation, flexible timing and a clear pricing strategy make a real difference.
- More buyers are looking. Volumes rose in Q3, and analysts reported more enquiries from private homeowners looking to right-size after the wait-out rule was removed. Buyers are active, but they are comparing carefully.
I cover the full approach in my seller strategy guide.
If you are planning to upgrade to a condo
This is where the numbers deserve a closer look. While HDB prices dipped, URA’s flash estimate showed private home prices rose 1.4% in Q3 2026, with suburban non-landed prices up 2.2% (The Straits Times). If your HDB value is flat and the condo you want keeps rising, the gap you need to bridge gets wider the longer you wait.
That does not mean everyone should rush. It means the useful question is not “Will my flat be worth more next year?” but “What will the gap between my flat and my next home look like?” Work out your sale proceeds after the outstanding loan and CPF refund, your loan eligibility, and whether a sell-first or buy-first sequence suits you. My HDB upgrader guide and calculators walk through those numbers, and you can compare resale condos with new launches.
If you own a larger flat in a mature estate
You are in the strongest part of the market right now. Demand for 5-room and Executive flats in towns like Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bukit Merah has held up, and million-dollar deals keep rising. If you have been thinking of right-sizing or unlocking equity, it is worth getting a proper valuation based on recent comparable deals before deciding.
Frequently asked questions
Are HDB resale prices falling in 2026?
Slightly. HDB’s Resale Price Index fell 0.1% in Q1, 0.3% in Q2 and an estimated 0.2% in Q3 2026, about 0.6% in total for the first nine months. That is a plateau after several years of strong growth, not a sharp correction.
Is 2026 a good time to sell my HDB flat?
It depends on your flat type, location and next move. Larger flats in mature estates have held up well, while some non-mature towns have softened. If you are upgrading, compare how much your flat and your target property have each moved rather than looking at HDB prices alone.
Why are million-dollar HDB flats increasing if prices are falling?
The Resale Price Index is an average across the whole market. Demand for larger, well-located flats in mature towns like Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bukit Merah has stayed strong, so million-dollar deals rose to 1,497 in January to September 2026 even as the overall index dipped.
What did the removal of the 15-month wait-out period change?
Since 28 July 2026, private property owners no longer need to wait 15 months after selling before buying a non-subsidised resale flat. Q3 transactions rose, but HDB said it has not seen a significant increase in prices or purchases by private property downgraders so far.
How do I find out what my HDB flat is worth?
Start with recent transactions in your own block and street on data.gov.sg or HDB’s resale portal, then adjust for floor level, condition and remaining lease. For a valuation and a sell-and-upgrade plan built around your numbers, get in touch.
Thinking about your next move?
Every flat and every family’s numbers are different, and town averages only tell part of the story. If you are weighing whether to sell, upgrade or hold, I am happy to run through your flat’s recent comparables, your likely proceeds and your upgrade options with you. No obligation. Book a strategy call or request a valuation here.
More reading: Property Insights & Guides · Case studies · Property investment · FAQ
Data notes: Transaction figures are my own analysis of the HDB resale flat prices dataset (registration date from January 2017) on data.gov.sg, retrieved 7 October 2026, using registration months; recent months may still receive late records, so my Q3 count (7,413) is slightly below HDB’s published 7,528. Index figures are from HDB’s Resale Price Index and HDB’s 1 October 2026 flash estimate as reported by The Straits Times and CNA. This article is general information, not financial advice.
Jeffrey Chan, Huttons Asia. CEA Reg No: R006403G